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Article
Global change: navigating uncertainties to create readiness and resilience
27 March 2025 | 6 minute read
The old saying that “no matter who you vote for, the government always gets in” may have come to an end. With electorates around the world voting out incumbents and support building for radical agendas and disruptive figures upending the international order, geopolitics is much less predictable than it used to be – and Withers is being called upon to help individuals and organisations to adapt.
“In today’s world, where you have a broader political pendulum, risks and changes can be more dramatic,” says Hussein Haeri KC, partner and co-head of international arbitration. “Whether it’s the approach of law and its relevance to war, whether you’re looking at climate, whether you’re looking at investment or protection or trade promotion, whether you’re looking at the approach towards diversity and inclusion policies, there is a very varied picture internationally, the effect of which depends on your precise international configuration and exposure.”
Shifting political alliances and priorities are just some of the major threats to global economic and social stability, alongside climate change, mis- and disinformation, changing societal values, emerging trade wars and the threat of armed conflict, with each posing a significant risk for both business and private capital. Identifying reliable information and formulating strategies to minimise exposure to risk is therefore extremely important to safeguard your business and personal assets through such turbulent times, and a wide range of clients are calling on us for support.
In today’s world, where you have a broader political pendulum, risks and changes can be more dramatic
“We are being asked to advise on potential options that may be available to our clients – whether they are companies that may be affected by tariffs, individuals who have properties around the world, or sovereign states. The current uncertainty affects a very broad array of stakeholders,” says Floriane Lavaud, partner in the Withers litigation and arbitration team in New York.
The prospect of tariffs and trade wars is particularly unsettling, adds Rosa Ertze, a partner in Withers’ New York corporate team, whose cross-border work spans the US, Spain, Mexico and other Latin American countries. “We’ve been advising clients of the analysis of their facts and circumstances, what recourse they could have, connecting them to consultancy firms that can help them with lobbying in the relevant countries, and working with them jointly for a legal and political strategy,” says Rosa. The firm is also supporting clients who are looking to mitigate the impact of tariffs by moving their manufacturing operations.
The ramifications of tariffs and counter tariffs will inevitably be felt globally as the cost of doing business increases throughout supply chains. This leaves businesses and investors in a difficult position, explains Pardeep Khosa, head of the litigation practice in Singapore: “You will find parties looking for ways to see if these additional costs that they now have to contend with can be passed on to their counterparts, and if not, how can they get out of these contracts, which are now no longer reaping the sort of economic benefits they anticipated”
Withers can support clients by examining their contracts, helping them understand what their rights, obligations and exposures are, and identifying possible actions to take. “The sooner clients are assisted, the more clearly they know where they stand, the better they will be placed in trying to navigate these challenges and towards their desired outcome” adds Pardeep.
Increasingly, everyone is incorporating elements of AI into their business operations, but it raises questions about what happens when things go wrong – who is responsible?
Similar issues are arising from changing priorities around ESG, with a more challenging market for renewable energy, a backlash against the EU’s proposed changes to reporting requirements, and the UK’s Modern Slavery Act set for an update. “We are acting for clients whose investments in certain sectors have suffered damage or loss due to changes in ESG legislation or regulations, so we’re supporting them to adapt their practices and protect their investments,” says Robert Kovacs, a London-based partner in the litigation and arbitration team.
Something that investors often don’t realise is that there may be options to claim for compensation through international investment treaties. “A lot of investors are caught in the crosshairs of these issues and are considering their options and what recourse they may have under international law agreements,” says Hussein. “And what’s very important – and is often not appreciated sufficiently – is that private actors, individuals and companies have the ability to utilise international law frameworks for direct effect themselves. They can approach international tribunals with regards to those sorts of actions in a way that can be both salutary and consequential."
As an example, Withers has been supporting investors from Asia and the Middle East in launching legal action under international investment treaties over losses incurred when the Swiss government allowed the writedown of Credit Suisse additional tier one (AT1) bonds upon the announcement of its collapse and surprise merger with UBS in March 2023.
Risks to businesses and individuals also lie in the digital sphere, with artificial intelligence (AI) already proving to be a major disruptor of the modern age. “Increasingly, everyone is incorporating elements of AI into their business operations, but it raises questions about what happens when things go wrong – who is responsible?” explains Pardeep.
AI can also have significant real-world implications when it comes to the reputation of both organisations and individuals, particularly when being used to disseminate mis- and disinformation online. Gone are the days where reputation management principally involved negotiating with the media over their latest hard copy newspaper splash, explains Andrew Fremlin-Key, a London based partner in Withers’ media, reputation and information disputes team . People are much more concerned about what is (and might remain) online.
I think the danger of mis/disinformation is massively, massively underrated”
Much of the team’s work nowadays is correcting false information put online by former employees, disgruntled customers, ex-partners and so forth. “The problem is third parties are reviewing and collating this information behind the scenes. You have no idea what they’re taking into account, saying about you and what is being used to make a decision about whether you’re a good business partner or not. You’re often not told about these things,” Andrew explains.
The problem can become more serious when incorrect information ends up on a due diligence database – which can lead to an individual being debanked, denied a visa or even ending up on a national crime database or government red list. So having a proactive monitoring system to quickly identify anything that may be damaging to a brand or individual reputation is key – plus a pre-crisis and post-crisis plan so you’re covered if the worst happens.
“I think the danger of mis/disinformation is massively, massively underrated,” says Andrew. “These have real-world implications for companies and individuals and in the next few years we’re going to see on the world stage quite how serious this is.”
With the political response still uncertain, individuals and businesses will need to remain vigilant and agile, following another old adage: to hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
“It’s not always about filing lawsuits. It’s also about analysing options at a strategic level that may not be only legal,” says Floriane. “At Withers we don’t look only at the law, we look at the broader objectives of our clients as well to make sure that their commercial and strategic objectives are met in a way that best suits them.”
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